Key Takeaways
- Xiaomi launches the Xiaomi 18 Fold with triple cameras, including a telephoto lens.
- The model is priced starting at CNY 10,999 (US$1,639), positioning the device firmly in the ultra-premium segment.
- Xiaomi’s in-house XRing 03 chipset reduces its reliance on Qualcomm and MediaTek.
- The pre-IFA showcase gives Xiaomi an opportunity to strengthen global brand visibility and premium mindshare.
- Xiaomi is likely to remain outside the top five foldable smartphone vendors in China in 2026, limiting the device’s near-term volume impact.
- Sales are also likely to remain below those of established foldable players such as Samsung, Huawei, Honor, and Motorola.
- Strong pent-up demand for Apple’s first foldable iPhone could give Apple an advantage over Xiaomi when it enters the segment.
Xiaomi Positions Its New Foldable Between Samsung and Apple
Xiaomi has launched its latest foldable device, the Xiaomi 18 Fold, it was also showcased as a pre-event announcement ahead of IFA. The timing is notable, as Xiaomi’s launch is effectively sandwiched between Samsung’s foldable launch in July and Apple’s tentative foldable launch on September 9.
This gives Xiaomi an opportunity to capture attention at a time when foldables are becoming an increasingly important part of the ultra-premium smartphone segment.
Exhibit 1: Xiaomi 18 Fold
Familiar Form Factor, Stronger Camera Proposition
One of the key strengths of the Xiaomi 18 Fold is its form factor, which is similar to the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8, while its curves appear quite close to those of the tentative iPhone Fold Ultra.
However, Xiaomi differentiates itself on the camera front. Unlike the Galaxy Z Fold8 and the tentative iPhone Fold Ultra, the Xiaomi 18 Fold comes with a triple-camera setup that includes a telephoto lens.
We believe the inclusion of a telephoto camera is an important specification for an ultra-premium smartphone, particularly as consumers increasingly expect flagship-level camera capabilities from high-end foldables.
CNY 10,999 Price Reinforces Ultra-Premium Positioning
The Xiaomi 18 Fold starts at CNY 10,999 (US$1,639), placing it firmly in the ultra-premium smartphone category.
While this pricing supports Xiaomi’s positioning of the device as a technology flagship, it could also limit the addressable market and constrain shipment volumes. Foldables already carry a significant price premium over conventional flagship smartphones, and a starting price at this level makes the Xiaomi 18 Fold more of a halo product than a mass-market growth driver.
Therefore, we view the device primarily as a product designed to strengthen Xiaomi’s premium credentials and technology image rather than as a product that can immediately generate large-scale foldable shipments.
Xiaomi’s In-House Chipset Strengthens Strategic Independence
Another notable aspect of the Xiaomi 18 Fold is its use of Xiaomi’s in-house XRing 03 chipset, rather than relying on MediaTek or Qualcomm.
This move makes strategic sense for Xiaomi as it seeks to become more self-dependent in chipsets. Greater control over its semiconductor platform can provide Xiaomi with more flexibility over product development and potentially reduce its dependence on external chipset suppliers.
More importantly, this could serve as an insurance amid continuing US–China trade tensions.
Foldable Market Remains Highly Concentrated
Despite the growing number of foldable smartphone launches, the global foldable market remains relatively concentrated, with Samsung, Apple, and Huawei representing the major players in the segment.
Xiaomi’s latest launch is therefore less about immediately disrupting shipment volumes and more about strengthening its position in the premium smartphone market.
The Xiaomi 18 Fold can help the company maximize brand visibility and enhance its global smartphone image, particularly by launching the device immediately ahead of IFA. Positioning the product as a major pre-IFA announcement also helps Xiaomi accelerate its branding and generate mindshare among the global technology audience.
Xiaomi Likely to Remain Outside China’s Top Five in 2026
Despite the high-end specifications of the Xiaomi 18 Fold, we expect Xiaomi to remain outside the top five foldable smartphone vendors in both global and China in 2026.
The Chinese foldable market is highly competitive, with established players benefiting from broader portfolios, stronger foldable brand recognition, and more sustained investments in the category. Xiaomi’s premium positioning and the CNY 10,999 starting price could further limit the device’s ability to generate the shipment volumes required to break into the top five.
As a result, the Xiaomi 18 Fold is more likely to contribute to Xiaomi’s brand positioning and technology credentials than materially alter its competitive ranking in China’s foldable market during 2026.
Exhibit 2: Global Foldable Smartphone Vendor Share Forecast: 2025 -2027F
Sales Impact Likely to Remain Limited
While the Xiaomi 18 Fold is strategically important, we believe its actual sales volume is likely to remain smaller than that of vendors such as Samsung, Huawei, Honor, and Motorola, which have been relatively regular participants in the foldable segment. These companies have either established stronger foldable portfolios or have increasingly focused on making foldables available across different price points.
The device’s CNY 10,999 starting price is another factor that could restrict volume, particularly compared with vendors pursuing a broader range of foldable price points.
Apple, in particular, could have a significant advantage when it enters the foldable segment. A large installed base of consumers within the iOS ecosystem has been waiting for a foldable iPhone, creating potentially significant pent-up demand for Apple’s first foldable device. Hence, Apple is likely to be ahead of Xiaomi in terms of market impact when it enters the segment.
Xiaomi Can Win Mindshare Before It Wins Volume
In our view, the Xiaomi 18 Fold is an important product for Xiaomi from a brand and technology perspective, even if it does not immediately translate into significant shipment volumes.
The combination of a premium foldable form factor, a triple-camera system with telephoto capability, a CNY 10,999 starting price, and Xiaomi’s in-house chipset demonstrates the company’s ambition to compete at the highest end of the smartphone market.
In short, the Xiaomi 18 Fold is likely to create meaningful mindshare for Xiaomi globally, particularly with its pre-IFA timing. However, we do not expect its sales volume to be sufficient to place Xiaomi among the global top five foldable smartphone vendors in the near term. In China, we similarly expect Xiaomi to remain outside the top five foldable smartphone vendors in 2026.
The device is therefore best viewed as a halo product aimed at strengthening Xiaomi’s premium positioning and technology credentials rather than a major near-term volume driver.