Apple is expected to become the world’s No. 1 foldable smartphone vendor in 2027, while wide-fold models rise to 67% of the market and the USA rapidly gains share.
SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., September 3, 2026 — The global foldable smartphone market is set for a major competitive and form-factor shift, according to the latest research from Smart Analytics Global (SAG)’s Smartphone 360 service. After shipments declined 8% YoY in 1H 2026, SAG expects 40%+ growth in 2H, driven by Apple’s anticipated foldable iPhone and solid Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8 demand.
Executive Summary
- Apple is forecast to capture 25% of global foldable shipments in 2026 and 41% in 2027, becoming the world’s No. 1 foldable smartphone vendor.
- Global foldable shipments declined 8% YoY in 1H 2026 but are forecast to rebound 40%+ in 2H, driving approximately 24% full-year growth.
- Wide-fold models will account for 45% of shipments in 2026 and 67% in 2027, becoming the dominant foldable form factor.
- Foldable smartphone penetration rate is forecast to rise from 1.5% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
- China remains the largest market, but its share is forecast to fall from 52% in 2025 to 41% in 2026, while the USA nearly doubles from 12% to 23%.
“Apple’s foldable entry will be a turning point for the category,” said Linda Sui, Founder and Principal of Smart Analytics Global (SAG). “Despite initial supply constraints and premium pricing, we expect Apple to quickly unlock pent-up demand from its massive premium installed base, capture 25% share in 2026, and become the global foldable market leader with 41% share in 2027.”
Apple to Become No. 1 with 41% Share by 2027
Apple will be the biggest catalyst for the next stage of foldable smartphone growth.
SAG forecasts Apple will capture approximately 25% of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026, despite entering the market relatively late in the year. Its share is expected to surge to 41% in 2027, making Apple the world’s No. 1 foldable smartphone vendor only one year after entering the category.
Exhibit 1: Global Foldable Smartphone Vendor Share Forecast: 2025 -2027F
Initial supply would likely be the biggest constraint. Given the manufacturing complexity and slower initial capacity ramp for Apple’s first foldable, combined with an expected US$2,000+ price tag, SAG expects the device to initially launch in selected major markets rather than immediately achieve broad global availability. In the USA, however, Apple’s newly launched Upgrade Program could help cushion the impact of the higher price tag by lowering the upfront cost and spreading payments over time, supporting early adoption among premium iPhone users.
SAG expects supply constraints to ease materially in 2027, enabling Apple to expand availability across all major markets and unlock significantly greater demand from its premium installed base.
Apple’s arrival will also push the foldable market further upmarket. SAG expects global foldable smartphone wholesale ASP to increase more than 50% YoY in 2026, followed by another double-digit increase in 2027.
Samsung Leads 2026; Chinese Vendors Adjust Foldable Portfolios
Samsung is expected to remain the world’s largest foldable smartphone vendor in 2026 with approximately 33% share, before moving to No. 2 at around 26% in 2027 as Apple ramps.
SAG has tracked encouraging demand for the Galaxy Z Fold8, strengthening Samsung’s foldable momentum and supporting a much stronger global market performance in 2H 2026.
Huawei is expected to remain another major player, particularly in China, with approximately 24% global foldable share in 2026. Honor and Lenovo-Motorola are also expected to remain among the global top five vendors.
The weaker global foldable performance in 1H 2026 partly reflected product lineup adjustments by Huawei and other Chinese brands as vendors reposition their portfolios around emerging foldable form factors. SAG has also tracked some potential substitution within Huawei’s premium portfolio, with the newly launched slate phone Huawei Pura X View potentially cannibalizing a portion of the wide fold foldable demand in its home market.
Wide Fold Becomes the Dominant Form Factor
The foldable market is rapidly shifting toward wide-fold smartphones, characterized by a more passport-like shape and an approximately 3:4 inner-display aspect ratio.
SAG forecasts wide-fold models will account for approximately 45% of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026, rising to 67% in 2027, making wide fold the dominant foldable form factor.
Exhibit 2: Global Foldable Smartphone by Form Factor Forecast: 2026F-2027F
The encouraging performance of Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8 has helped validate consumer demand for wider foldable designs. According to SAG research, content consumption is the leading use case for foldable smartphone owners, and a wider, more tablet-like display provides a better experience for video, web browsing, reading, gaming and other content-centric applications.
Apple’s expected entry should further accelerate this transition, while Huawei and other Chinese vendors are also adjusting future product portfolios around the wide-fold trend.
USA Nearly Doubles Share as China’s Lead Narrows
Apple’s entry will significantly reshape the geographic structure of the global foldable smartphone market.
China will remain the world’s largest single foldable smartphone market in 2026, but its share of global shipments is forecast to decline by 11 percentage points, from approximately 52% in 2025 to 41% in 2026.
The USA will see the most significant gain, with its share nearly doubling from approximately 12% in 2025 to 23% in 2026, driven primarily by Apple’s foldable entry as well as steady growth from Samsung’s foldable portfolio.
South Korea will remain another important foldable market, although its global share is forecast to moderate from approximately 9% in 2025 to 7% in 2026.
Exhibit 3: Foldable Smartphone Country Share Forecast:2025-2026F
The shift marks an important change for a category that has historically been heavily concentrated in China. Apple’s entry will substantially broaden foldable adoption among premium smartphone consumers in the USA and other developed markets.
Overall, SAG expects foldable smartphone penetration to increase from approximately 1.5% of global smartphone shipments in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
Foldables Approach an Inflection Point
Global foldable smartphone shipments declined 8% YoY in 1H 2026, reflecting mixed vendor performance and product lineup adjustments. However, SAG expects the direction to reverse sharply in the second half.
Driven by Apple’s market entry and encouraging Galaxy Z Fold8 demand, SAG forecasts 40%+ YoY foldable shipment growth in 2H 2026, bringing full-year growth to approximately 24%. Growth is expected to remain strong at around 40% in 2027.
More importantly, the structure of the market is changing rapidly. Apple is expected to become the category leader, wide fold is becoming the dominant form factor, and the USA is emerging as a much larger center of global foldable demand.
Apple may be arriving late to foldable smartphones, but SAG expects it to take 25% share almost immediately and become the global No. 1 with 41% share in 2027.