- As per SAG, India smartphone market is forecasted to decline more than 15% in Q2 2026
- Vivo (including iQOO) will lead the chart followed by Samsung. If we separate IQOO from vivo then Samsung will lead the shipments.
- This would mark the first time Samsung has returned to the top spot in India’s smartphone market since losing the crown to Chinese brands in 2018.
- Apple and Samsung are forecasted to gain 4% market share each compared to Q2 2025.
SAG forecasts India smartphone shipments to decline more than 15% YoY in Q2 2026, as memory shortages and component-led price hikes begin to weigh more visibly on both global and Indian smartphone demand. This marks one of the most significant supply-side disruptions for the industry since the COVID period. However, Samsung is a standout vendor for the quarter.
Samsung and Apple appear relatively well-positioned to defy the broader shipment decline and gain market share. This is supported by stronger supply-chain control, more resilient premium demand, and better pricing power. In contrast, most Chinese brands are likely to face greater pressure from rising costs, channel inventory adjustment, and weakening demand in the mass-market price bands.
Vivo (including iQOO) is forecasted to retain its leadership in quarterly smartphone shipments with a 21% market share in Q2 2026. However, Samsung is expected to emerge as the key highlight of the quarter. While most major Chinese vendors are projected to witness sharp YoY shipment declines, Samsung is forecasted to grow 4% YoY during the quarter. Moreover, if iQOO shipments are separated from Vivo, Samsung would become the leading smartphone brand in the Indian market for Q2 2026.
Exhibit 1: India smartphone top 2 brands market share: Q2 2025 vs Q2 2026
India smartphone market Q2 2026F
Vivo’s market share is forecasted to decline from 22% in Q2 2025 to 21% in Q2 2026. In contrast, Samsung is forecasted to gain share from 14% to 18% during the same period. Samsung’s growth is likely to be driven primarily by strong performance in the low-to-mid price segments through models such as the A17, A16, A07, and the F-series devices including the F70e. In the premium segment, the Galaxy S26 series is forecasted to outperform the S25 series, driven by a delayed launch cycle that favors Q2 2026 shipment comparisons. The channel streamlining and supply chain vertical integration will also benefit the brand to some extent.
While several Chinese vendors continue prioritizing higher ASP smartphone portfolios by launching the latest flagship models in Indian market, Samsung plans to capitalize on the resulting volume gap in the mass-market segment.
Among the leading brands, apart from Samsung, only Apple and Lenovo-Motorola are forecasted to gain market share in Q2 2026 compared to Q2 2025. Apple’s iPhone shipment market share is forecasted to increase from 8% to 12% in Q2 2026, supported by stronger domestic manufacturing and stable premium demand being less impacted compared to other segments. Meanwhile, Lenovo-Motorola is forecasted to grow modestly market share during the quarter.
We will be writing a detailed report for clients on India smartphone market Q2 2026 performance soon so stay tuned on the platform. In the meantime, if you have any queries, please feel free to reach out to us.
In addition, curious about SAG’s latest smartphone vendor shipment forecast by region by quarter? Clients can click here to access the full report.
Disclaimer:
- This piece of article has forward looking statement and it should not be considered as investment advice. Actual numbers may differ.
- Numbers may not sum up to 100% due to rounding issue.