Apple Expects to Launch New iPhones, AirPods and Apple Watches on September 9
Apple is believed to launch the iPhone, AirPods, and smartwatch during its September 9 event at Apple Park. For the iPhone lineup, we believe Apple will launch the iPhone 18 Pro series, including the Pro and Pro Max, along with its first foldable iPhone. For the first foldable iPhone, please check out SAG published blog on Sep 3.
Alongside the iPhone launches, Apple is also expected to further enrich its ecosystem with new TWS and Apple watch offerings.
Smart Analytics Global (SAG) will be on the ground at Apple Park on September 9 to attend Apple’s launch event. Stay tuned for SAG’s live coverage, analyst insights, and post-event analysis.
AirPods 5 Will Continue Apple’s TWS Strategy
Apple is likely to launch the fifth-generation AirPods. There will be two variants getting launched: an ANC (Active Noise Cancellation) variant and a non-ANC variant. SAG expects the pricing will be similar to that of AirPods 4.
We believe Apple will skip the launch of the AirPods 4 Pro this year, as Apple appears to follow an alternate-year cycle for its Pro and regular AirPods lineups. In 2025, Apple launched the AirPods 3 Pro, while in 2024 it launched the AirPods 4. Hence, we believe Apple will launch AirPods 5 this year, followed by the AirPods 4 Pro in 2027. The camera-embedded one is believed to come out next year, so this year is regular product launch cycle.
SAG Expects Apple to Lead the Global TWS Market in 2026
As per Smart Analytics Global wearable 360 service, Apple is expected to lead the global TWS market in terms of both volumes and values for the year 2026. The same was the case in Q2 2026, and we expect Apple to maintain its leadership in 2H 2026.
What helps Apple lead the global TWS market is its presence across multiple countries, including the USA, Western Europe, Canada, China, India, and Singapore etc..
We believe Apple’s geographical presence and strong iPhone sales help drive AirPods sales globally. This ecosystem advantage helps Apple remain the number one player in the global TWS market.
At SAG we forecast Apple AirPods to grow 6% YoY in both Q3 2026 and 2026 and will continue to lead the global TWS market in 2026 and 2027.
For the upcoming AirPods 5th gen, we expect it will make up 44% volume share of total AirPods during2H 2026, indicated as below.
Exhibit 1: Apple AirPods 5th Gen % to Total Portfolio in H2 2026F
Apple Watch Series 12 and Watch Ultra 4 Expected
Apple is also expected to launch the Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra fourth generation this time.
The Apple Watch Ultra 4, as the name suggests, is targeted toward rugged users. It is not really a product for the regular user, but rather for people who are very much into adventure, trekking, sports, etc. Therefore, the sales volume of the Apple Watch Ultra is expected to remain tiny compared to the Apple Watch Series 12.
Apple Watch Series 11 Could Benefit from Price Discounts
With the Apple Watch Series 12 coming into the picture, we believe sales of the Apple Watch Series 11 will get a boost because of the price discount.
At the same time, the Apple Watch Series 10 might witness a decline in sales and become obsolete over time, as it becomes two generations old.
We forecast Apple Watch to grow 2% in Q3 2026 and for full-year 2026. It will also continue to lead the global true smartwatch market in 2026 and 2027. For the global wrist wearable category which includes true smartwatch, basic smartwatch and bands as well as non-display bands, Apple is forecasted to capture 20% market share in Q3 2026 leading the market. However, for the full year 2026, Huawei will be ahead of Apple with 19% market share and Apple will sit at 18%. This is driven by Huawei’s presence in both true and basic smartwatch category.
Exhibit 2: Global True Smartwatch Market Share by Vendor 2025 vs 2026F
