As per the latest global wrist wearable market 2026 forecast from Smart Analytics Global (SAG) Wearable 360, global wrist wearable shipments are forecasted to decline 2% YoY to 204 million units. This comes after a relatively strong 7% YoY growth in 2025, indicating a clear shift in market momentum.
By segment, the true smartwatch market forecast for 2026 suggests a 1% YoY decline. The basic band and watch segment is forecasted to fall sharply by 4% YoY. In contrast, the emerging non-display fitness band category will grow 67% YoY, albeit on a low base.
Exhibit 1: Global Wrist Wearable Market Shipment and YoY Growth 2024-2027F
Why the Global Wrist Wearable Market Will Decline in 2026?
The volume decline in 2026 will predominantly come from “Basic Band and Watch” category. This is driven by gloomy economic scenario for the year due to issues like US-Iran war and memory shortage, both indirectly impacting the market and consumer spending pattern. The impact is much less compared to smartphone market where the impact is more direct. SAG forecast global smartphone market to decline in double digits in 2026 (-10% YoY as base case and -14% YoY as worst case).
Apart from this, we observed the watch market is undergoing a clear shift in consumer preferences. Users are increasingly moving away from entry-level basic bands and watches towards two directions. On one end, analog watches, driven by fashion, simplicity, and longer replacement cycles. On the other, higher-value smart devices, including true smartwatches and non-display fitness bands. These offer more advanced health tracking and differentiated use cases. This polarization reflects a broader change in user expectations, where consumers either seek minimalist, style-oriented products or data-driven, health-focused experiences, leaving basic devices increasingly squeezed in the middle.
In value terms, the market would continue to grow in low single digit at 2% YoY. This is driven by ASP increase of 4% YoY in 2026. Higher priced true smartwatch and non-display fitness bands would drive the ASP up by 4% and continue to drive this growth.
Top Wrist Wearable Brands (By Volume) in 2026: Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi
Huawei Leads in Volume Driven by China
Talking about the top vendors, Huawei led the global wrist wearable market in 2025 and will continue to do so in 2026 and 2027. The growth comes mostly from strong momentum in China and then overseas as well. Around 53% of the Huawei’s shipment are true smartwatches. It is also the only one among top 5 wrist wearable by shipment which will grow in volume terms for 2026 at 11% YoY. In 2026, Huawei is forecasted to surpass 50-million-unit shipments for wrist wearable. Apart from China, growth would come from Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, etc.
Basic Watch and Bands Help Xiaomi Be the Runner Up
Xiaomi was the runner up in 2025. We forecast it to decline 7% YoY in 2026 and rebound 1% in 2027. Around 95% of the shipments were basic bands and watches in 2025. We believe Xiaomi’s focus is less on the true smart watches and forecast that their proportion shipment of basic band and watches to increase even further in 2026 and 2027.
Apple Leads in Value and Third in Volume
Apple was the third runner up in 2025 and grew 3% YoY. Basis our Apple Watch by Model report, in 2025, Apple Watch series 10 non-cellular was the highest shipped model in 2025 followed by 3rd gen Apple Watch SE non cellular. We forecast units to decline 2% YoY in 2026. The anticipated non-renewal of SE series watch in 2026 is the prime reason of decline. We forecast Apple to rebound 7% YoY in 2027. What is impressive about Apple here is that despite being absent in basic band and watch and non-display band category it was able to be in top 3. In terms of value, Apple lead the chart with 39% value market share in 2025, and we forecast it to maintain similar lead throughout the forecast window. Huawei, Xiaomi and Apple will continue to be the top 3 as per our short term forecast in volume terms.
Value Share Overview
In value terms, Apple led the chart with 39% market share, followed by Huawei and Garmin with 24% and 9% respectively. Samsung very closely follows with 9% market share though slight behind Garmin.
Exhibit 2: Top 3 Vendors of Global Wrist Wearable Market in 2026 (in Volume Terms)
Segment Overview
True smartwatch market is a subset of overall wrist wearable, and it grew 6% YoY in 2025. It is forecasted to decline 2% YoY in 2026. Apple led the chart by volume with 39% market share followed by Huawei and Samsung with 27% and 12% respectively. In 2026, Huawei, Xiaomi and Apple’s volume market share will be 39%, 31% and 12% respectively.
Exhibit 3: Top 3 Vendors of Global True Smartwatch Market in 2026 (in Volume Terms)
Basic band and watch, another subset of wrist wearable grew 7% YoY in 2025 but is forecasted to decline 5% YoY in 2026. Xiaomi leads this category with 33% market share followed by Huawei and Fitbit with 18% and 7% market share. In 2026, Xiaomi, Huawei and Fitbit’s volume market share will be 32%, 21% and 7% respectively.
Exhibit 4: Top 3 Vendors of Global Basic Watch and Band Market in 2026 (in Volume Terms)
Non-Display Fitness Bands: The Fastest Growing Wearable Segment
The newest category within wrist wearables, non-display bands, showed strong growth of 136% YoY in 2025. This growth comes off a small base, with Whoop leading the category at 53% market share. Amazfit follows, securing the second position in its debut year with 21% share, driven by the Amazfit Helio strap. Polar ranks as the second runner-up in the category. In 2026, top 3 will be Whoop, Amazfit and Polar with volume market share of 39%, 19% and 15% respectively.
Exhibit 5: Top 3 Vendors of Global Non Display Band Market in 2026 (in Volume Terms)
Factors Leading to Growth of Non-Display Bands
This rapid growth is increasingly driven by shifting consumer behaviour and evolving use cases. Users are moving away from screen-centric devices toward distraction-free, purpose-built wearables that focus on continuous health monitoring rather than notifications. Key use cases such as sleep tracking, recovery optimization, stress management, and performance-based training are gaining importance, particularly among fitness enthusiasts, athletes, and wellness-focused consumers. The preference for lightweight, 24/7 wearable form factors that can be worn during sleep and intensive activities is also accelerating adoption. In addition, a growing segment of users is embracing data-driven lifestyle optimization (“quantified self”), where insights like HRV, strain, and recovery scores are more valuable than traditional smartwatch features. Another factor driving the growth of these wearables is the multiple days of battery life.
New Entrants of Non-Display Bands
The space remains largely unsaturated, and we expect new players to enter in 2026. Noise showcased its bands at CES 2026, with products expected to launch this year. Luna is another entrant, launching its band on April 30. Notably, we believe non-subscription, non-display bands will gain traction in 2026, playing a key role in democratizing the category by lowering the barrier to entry.
In the long term, non-display bands are well positioned to become the next growth engine for the wrist wearable category, driven by their alignment with evolving consumer priorities around health, simplicity, and continuous monitoring rather than multifunctional device usage.
Clients please click SAG recently published a market report titled “SAG Global Wrist Wearable Intelligence: Quarterly Vendor Shipment, ASP & Revenue and Forecast: April 2026 Edition” , in which we have market sized 21 vendors and others by category (true, basic and non-display wrist wearable) for units, ASP and revenue and is highly recommended for industry stakeholders.