Abstract

Under the base case, SAG forecasts that global smartphone sales (sell-through to end users) will decline by 10% YoY in 2026, driven by ongoing supply constraints, rising component costs, a weak macroeconomic environment (including higher energy prices), and persistent geopolitical tensions (such as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine). Mature markets, including China, are expected to decline by high single digits, while emerging markets will face a sharper double-digit contraction. The downturn is projected to extend into 2027, although the rate of decline will moderate to low single digits. From 2028 onwards, SAG expects the global smartphone market to enter a recovery phase, with the strongest growth anticipated in 2028, supported by favorable comparisons and pent-up demand, as well as AI and technology-driven replacement sales. Looking further ahead, a 6G-driven upgrade cycle is expected to emerge from 2029 onwards. China will remain the largest smartphone market throughout the forecast period, followed by India and the United States. Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Mexico, Germany, and the UK are expected to remain among the global top ten markets.