Qualcomm has released its Q1 2026 (January to March 2026) financial results on April 29, with total non-GAAP revenue declining 2% YoY to US$10.6 billion. Within this, QCT declined 4% YoY, while QTL grew 5% YoY. Among QCT segments, Handset continues to dominate, accounting for 66% of total QCT revenues and 57% of overall revenues. However, if we compare it with the same quarter, an year back, the percentage contribution was much higher, 64% of the overall revenues. The takeaway remains clear: the handset segment dominates Qualcomm’s revenue but there is supply crunch.
Exhibit 1: Qualcomm Segment Revenue as % of Total Q1 2025 – Q1 2026
Exhibit 1: Qualcomm Segment Revenue as % of Total Q1 2025 – Q1 2026
Handset revenue for the quarter came in at US$6 billion, declining 13% YoY. This is not surprising given the ongoing memory shortage and price hikes, which have softened smartphone demand. OEMs are also taking a cautious stance on procurement. Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Honor, etc. are some of key Qualcomm’s clients. Chinese smartphone vendors remain more affected, given that Samsung enjoys vertical integration to an extent, while Apple depends less on Qualcomm, only for modems and that too not completely.
Meanwhile, MediaTek also released its earnings yesterday, according to which its revenue was US$4.7 billion, down 2.7% YoY. The Mobile Phone segment revenue declined 15% YoY and 17% QoQ in the January to March 2026 quarter. This segment accounted for 49% of MediaTek’s revenues. Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Realme, and Transsion are some of the clients of MediaTek’s mobile phone division.
For the April to June 2026 quarter, MediaTek guides a sequential decline. This makes sense as we are sensing demand softening, and hence vendors will be cautious in procuring orders. Volumes will likely dip not only sequentially but also on a yearly basis, as per Smart Analytics Global (SAG).
We believe, the majority of MediaTek mobile phone chipsets are mapped to entry-to-mid segment smartphones. The entry segment has been hit the most due to the memory crunch, and hence the decline for MediaTek is higher than Qualcomm (who has a better share in the premium segment).
The decline in “Handset” revenue for Qualcomm and the decline in “Mobile Phone” revenue for MediaTek did not immediately reflect in CY Q1 2026 smartphone market performance due to the inherent lag between component shipments and finished device sales. The impact is more likely to surface in the next quarter (April to June 2026) global smartphone performance. Subscribing clients can reach out to us to know the extent of it as we have our latest April 2026 forecast ready.
We forecast the impact of memory shortages and price hikes to become visible on the global smartphone market performance from CY Q2 2026 onwards. Other supply chain players support our forecast. For example, the outlook from SK Hynix also indicates softened demand for the PC and smartphone segments, while demand for AI servers remains strong. Similarly, TSMC earnings indicate softer demand for smartphones but also highlight that high-end smartphones continue to perform relatively better.
A short report is live on the platform with updated April 2026 forecast numbers. Subscribers can read it here.